Mystery Product

Can you figure out what this product is?

Lotion? Body soap? Hair conditioner?


I can offer one tip I learned the hard way: the best way to identify a mystery product is NOT to get out of the shower and smear it on every inch of your body. Google Translate is a much better investigative tool.

Crisis on My Block

I have been transfixed by the latest news out of Europe, and I can't help but share my thoughts on the current economic climate.

Some commentators are calling Eastern Europe the "subprime market" of Europe. Over the past few years, investors from Western Europe clammored to invest in the rapidly-growing Eastern European countries, of which Poland is one of the most stable and prosperous.

The foreign investment is abundantly clear here. When I first arrived in Poland this summer, a banking executive told me that there are over 60 different bank brands in Warsaw, a city of 2.7 million inhabitants. Staggering. Poles have not historically availed themselves of banking services, creating a huge opportunity for foreign banks to offer accounts and sell products--including low interest loans in foreign currencies.

Which brings us to a key dynamic exacerbating the situation. Banks offered insanely low interest rate for Swiss franc- and Euro-denominated mortgage loans. The Polish zoty was very strong, peaking in the summer of 2008, and Poland was on track to join the Euro in 2012. Consumers figured they could save on interest in the meantime by paying in Swiss francs or Euro. But then the zloty started sliding, falling 48% against the Euro since the summer of 2008. Foreign currency became expensive, surprising borrowers whose mortgages suddenly became unaffordable. It was not just mortgage customers who couldn't pay back loans; many companies depend on foreign investment and loans which they now struggle to cover. I know of one bank which signed dozens of leases for branch locations, to be paid in then-inexpensive Euro. The bank has watched as their lease rates rise and rise as the Euro becomes pricier against the zloty.

The problem impacts all of Europe: since many of these loans were offered by foreign banks, mortgage and loan defaults harm business in countries other than Poland. Austria's banking industry is particularly at risk, since it is heavily exposed to Eastern Europe. So we end up with a situation where Polish consumers and businesses cannot pay back loans to Western European countries, who then stop investing in Poland, which means no more development, and no more new jobs. (Unemployment in Poland fell from 20% in 2004 to 9% in the fall of 2008, and has now increased to 10.5% in January 2009.)

I've been loooking around Warsaw and observing these dynamics very clearly in my everyday life. Even my not-so-humble abode in Warsaw is a microcosm of the larger market forces.

Here is the apartment building in which I live:


It is a new development--construction was completed in early 2008--consisting of a couple hundred fancy, modern condominiums. When I moved in in September of 2008, I was one of the only residents in the building. The building's manager told me that many of the units are owned by foreigners who bought the units as investments and planned to let them sit and accrue value. I have noticed a lot more construction in recent months, much to my annoyance. It appears that owners have decided to complete their units (Polish condos are sold incomplete, and owners install cabinets, flooring, etc) so they can either live there or rent them out.

Here is a street level view of my building:


You will notice here three banks:

1. mBank is a virtual bank (customers conduct banking online and through SMS messages), owned by Polish BRE Bank, which is owned by German Commerzbank. BRE Bank is one of the first Polish banks, established in the late 1980s. As the first Polish bank to obtain a credit line in 1989, it helped Poland claw out from Communism's iron lock and spur the growth of capitalism.
2. BPH is a Polish bank which is 66% owned by GE Money Bank--before that Italian bank UniCredit owned the majority share.
3. ING, of course, is a Dutch bank.

I am surrounded with massive foreign investment--private and institutional--and I, myself, am representing a foreign company investing in Poland. I'm curious to see what happens to me and my 3 banks as economic conditions unfold.

Milk Bar

Milk Bars are government-subsidized lunch restaurants created by Communists in the 1960s. When I first asked some Polish friends for restaurant recommendations, they enthusiastically urged me to go to a Milk Bar, described as "one step up from a soup kitchen." Each day, a list of food items and associated prices are posted (no profit is allowed, so prices fluctuate closely with commodity prices). You go up to a window and order from the never-English-speaking lady, then step down and collect your food from a cafeteria-style window. I finally went to a Milk Bar, and as you can probably guess....

I was yelled at in Polish. I apparently took another woman's Pierogi from the cafeteria window. Once I realized the yelling was directed at me, I froze and took a few slow steps backwards. I knew this was the correct action, as the yelling subsided and a huffy woman marched up to me and snatched the plate from my hands. I hope she understood my reason for stealing food at a government-supported soup kitchen. Honestly, I didn't mind paying the one dollar for my meal!


Photo: Milk Bar (Bar Mleczny) in 1982

On the Street

I was yelled at by a stout, possibly homeless Polish woman: "Przepraszam." I said I don't speak Polish and kept walking. "Przepraszam Pani!" she repeated in a much more demanding voice. I repeated my refrain and walked a bit faster.

My Hieroglyphic Washing Machine

Um, I think I'll select the yarn ball cycle, 700 power, and key. Now do I push the play button?

Evil Secretary / "Short Talk"

I was yelled at for upsetting the CEO's secretary. My offense was requesting a meeting with her to discuss a topic her boss asked me to discuss with her. She complained to the COO, which resulted in an Outlook invitation from the COO entitled "Short Talk". It was like going to the principal's office in elementary school, if your principal was a German with a very tiny mustache.

Hipster Coffee Shop

I was yelled at while trying to help myself to the glass refrigerator containing bottled drinks. The refrigerator was not located behind the counter. I put the bottle of water back into the refrigerator, and stood in place to watch the haughty barista stomp over to me, open the glass door, extract the same bottle, and hand it to me. I guess that's how she earns her tips?

Which would you pick next time you're sick?

Thanks to my more-frequent-than-normal colds, I've accrued quite a stash of medicine I don't understand. Mired in mucus and barely able to stand, procuring this medicine involves going to the pharmacy window (they keep all useful medicine behind the counter) and mimicking my symptoms to the non-English-speaking pharmacist in front of a long line of people. Demonstrating the difference between a dry cough and a hacking cough is quite the undertaking.

And there's always a line.